Excerpts below:

John Dowless, president of Florida’s Millennium Consulting firm, thinks the amendment would put state legislators in a tough spot. “I guarantee you when gas climbs back up to $5 a gallon, they’re going to say ‘Drill here, drill now,’” Dowless says. “But I think it would be a little difficult for them politically to vote against the amendment right now.”

Dowless thinks that legislators will not pass it through committee in order to avoid the optics of voting against a crackdown on big oil during a big oil spill. For Crist, though, the optics are the primary draw. While he’s not raging ahead of Rubio in the polls, the oil spill has so far worked to his advantage. He’s received constant media exposure and has had the opportunity to cast himself as a leader in crisis.

His call for an amendment, according to Dowless, is “absolutely, 100 percent political. It’s about getting poliitical headlines, it’s about political posturing, it’s about winning political votes.” Noting Crist’s vacillating stance on drilling, Dowless surmises that if Crist were not running for Senate, he would probably not be calling for the amendment.

To read the full article, visit: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/07/whats-behind-charlie-crists-constitutional-drilling-ban/59481/

Regardless of who wins the Republican Primary race for Florida’s 8th District in the U.S. House of Representatives, they’ll have  a tough climb versus infamous congressman Alan Grayson. Below, you can read excerpts from a Politico.com article, Rivals shy away from Alan Grayson.

Among the sources in the story was John Dowless, who predicted a tough road for the Republican nominee.

One of the most respected Florida conservatives, former state Sen. Daniel Webster, shocked the party when he announced he wasn’t running — even though he’d already begun to scout locations for his campaign kickoff and had talked to House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) about supporting his potential candidacy. Several state legislators also took a pass, despite the inviting political landscape and the national party’s hunger to oust Grayson.

Then there were the two well-funded Orlando businessmen, Tim Seneff and Jerry Pierce, who also floated their names as possible challengers before deciding to step aside.

Analysts on both sides say that potential challengers have had to think long and hard about whether they want to engage in what is sure to be a smash-mouth, no-holds-barred campaign. The pugnacious Grayson is not only independently wealthy — he is one of the wealthiest members of the House, with an estimated $31 million net worth — but now also possesses a national fundraising base in the wake of a headline-grabbing episode last month in which he claimed on the House floor that the GOP health care plan consisted of wanting sick seniors to die quickly.

“These people realize that Grayson plays hardball. There are two reasons that are giving these Republican candidates pause: It will be a bruiser of a campaign, and he has a huge amount of money to spend,” said John Dowless, a leading Republican consultant in the Orlando area.

On the heels of major conservative victories such as Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts, Marco Rubio, a Republican candidate for Senate, is enjoying red-hot  momentum against the early favorite, Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

In a matter of just five months, the polls have flipped to Rubio’s favor, giving the former underdog a double-digit lead over the governor. CNN cited a specific image that has come full-circle to haunt Crist- a hug with President Barack Obama, from Feburary of last year, when Crist accepted Obama’s stimulus package.

Currently, Crist is running radio ads criticizing Obama’s spending, but Rubio isn’t afraid to call Crist’s bluff. Peter Hamby of CNN, wrote an article titled, A year later, ‘The Hug’ returns to spotlight in Florida Senate battle.

John Dowless was one of several experts quoted in  Hamby’s article. Excerpts from Hamby’s story include:

Friday’s straw poll victory marked the beginning of a spate of good news for Rubio. On Monday, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, a standard-bearer for opponents of big government, threw his support behind Rubio. And on Tuesday, Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, lined up behind the former House speaker.

National endorsements often matter little in local races, but they appear to have made an impact in the Florida fight — to Rubio’s benefit.

Primary voters tend to be a little more informed, they pay attention,” said John Dowless, an Orlando-based Republican strategist. In a primary these endorsements do make a difference, and in this environment it plays even bigger. Whether it’s Grover Norquist, the National Review, or the Club for Growth, those things matter.

Ex-Notre Dame coach considering a run for Congress

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio says that in the last three months he raised nearly $1 million for his underdog campaign for the U.S. Senate. That’s a huge improvement over Rubio’s previous fundraising and puts a big crack in the aura of inevitability surrounding Gov. Crist’s U.S. Senate campaign……

But Rubio’s long-shot candidacy for the Republican nomination has been generating growing excitement among grass roots activists and conservative national media figures skeptical of Crist’s sunny populism……county Republican parties across the state have been holding “straw polls” with activists overwhelmingly supporting Rubio over Crist…..The hefty fundraising quarter establishes Rubio’s viability and is likely to spur more interest in the 38-year-old Cuban-American from Miami. Rubio still has huge hurdles in taking on a popular governor backed by much of the Republican U.S. Senate leadership.

“Nobody’s writing off Rubio any longer, but I think he’s still in a let’s-wait-and-see position,” said Republican consultant John Dowless of Orlando. “He has a long way to go because Florida is not cheap to run a campaign in.”

By Reid Wilson – 08/17/09 10:53 AM ET

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will name a replacement for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R) before Congress returns from August recess, choosing from among what is likely to be a pool of seven potential candidates.

On Friday, Crist’s office announced it had requested questionnaires from three potential candidates — ex-U.S. Attorney Bob Martinez, former Attorney General Jim Smith and Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R).

“He’s seriously considering it,” Diaz-Balart spokesman Andy Gonzalez said of Crist’s request.

Crist’s communications director, Erin Isaac, said the eventual list of candidates Crist considers will be composed of “seven or so” names.

Republican sources say former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former Sen. Connie Mack (R), ex-Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and state Sen. Daniel Webster (R) could also be on the list, along with a surprise dark horse — former Crist chief of staff George LeMieux, now the chairman of a major Florida law firm.

“There’s additional names that will be released,” Isaacs said, though she would not address LeMieux’s chances specifically. LeMieux declined to comment for this story.

In appointing a replacement for Martinez, Crist is picking the person he would replace if his own bid for Senate is successful. After a term as governor, Crist is the heavy favorite in the Republican primary for Senate, though he faces a spirited challenge from former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

Each contender has positives and negatives. Mack and Jennings are seen as senior statesmen, Republicans widely respected throughout the party. But Mack would not bring Crist any political gain, while some in Crist’s inner circle are nervous that Jennings is too close to former Gov. Jeb Bush (R), with whom Crist does not have a good relationship.

Diaz-Balart, who was born in Cuba, might help Crist with the important Republican-leaning voting bloc in his race against Rubio, but the congressman is relatively young and prevailing wisdom suggests the person Crist selects would be serving his or her last job in government.

Still, Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer — a close Crist ally — said the governor is not contemplating politics in his selection, and that Diaz-Balart would not be ending his career by accepting the temporary assignment.

“Any time the governor reaches out and asks you to consider serving in an important capacity like this, I don’t think there’s many people that would say no,” Greer said. Of Diaz-Balart, Greer added: “He’s served his party well. He’s a leader in the Hispanic community.”

Few believe Webster will wind up on the final shortlist, but as a social conservative with good relations in the party, picking him could help Crist convince those on the far right he is on their side.

“Politically, [Crist] would go a long way in appointing a social conservative,” said John Dowless, a Republican consultant and former head of the Florida Christian Coalition. “The reaction of the [social conservative] leaders would be positive, and they would view it as a positive step in their direction.”

LeMieux could bring his own baggage. While Crist would not appoint himself to the Senate seat, choosing LeMieux would be seen as the next closest step, an instance certain to anger some in the Republican Party.

But if Crist is looking for a loyalist, Republican sources said, he should look no further than LeMieux, his top aide in the attorney general’s office and the governor’s office and his former campaign manager.

Martinez announced earlier this month he would resign his seat once Crist had chosen a successor.

In the wake of Mel Martinez’s resignation from the U.S. Senate, conservatives wondered if Florida Governor Charlie Crist would appoint an interm senator with a moderate background, or a social conservative. Reid Wilson’s Crist’s list for Martinez seat grows longer, the author asked John Dowless about potential replacements:

“Politically, [Crist] would go a long way in appointing a social conservative,” said John Dowless, a Republican consultant and former head of the Florida Christian Coalition. “The reaction of the [social conservative] leaders would be positive, and they would view it as a positive step in their direction.”

When former Notre Dame head coach, Lou Holtz, was rumored to be considering a run for District 24 in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Orlando Sentinel  asked John Dowless if the football legend had a chance at winning the Republican primary against local leaders such as Sandy Adams and Karen Diebel Holtz, who lives  near Lake Nona, never ran for office, but is known as a Republican supporter.

“You put him in the ring and it’s all but over,” said John Dowless, an Orlando-based Republican consultant. “He’s on TV, he’s likable, the name ID is huge and people respect him enormously….

Holtz also has been a steady GOP contributor, giving thousands of dollars to Republican presidential candidates and more recently $3,000 to House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio. He also gave $2,300 last year to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, election records show.He has a Rolodex that people would dream of; people are going to flock to him,” Dowless said.

In Florida, Republicans declare open season on freshman Dem Rep. Kosmas

In recent days and weeks, a series of Republican candidates have jumped at the chance to face freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) in a battleground district just east of Orlando. All of them have elective experience or a significant niche, and most of them, like Kosmas, are female.

In recent days, state Reps. Dorothy Hukill and Sandy Adams have said they are also running for the seat, complicating the primary, which should only continue to grow.

“On the Republican primary side, it really is a jump ball,” said Bryan Malenius, who was chief of staff to former Rep. Ric Keller (R-Fla.) in the neighboring 8th district. “I don’t think there’s any name in there that clears the field, but all of them have the potential to raise money and be really formidable against Suzanne Kosmas.”

Because the district was added this decade through reapportionment, there hasn’t been a long line of heirs apparent waiting in the wings.

As state House speaker, former Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.) essentially created the 24th district for himself in advance of the 2002 elections. Despite this, Feeney lost to Kosmas by 16 points in 2008, and the district has become very competitive.

Orlando GOP consultant John Dowless said the fact that Adams holds Feeney’s former state House seat means she has a built-in geographical advantage. But he also said Hukill could probably claim that she would be a good general-election candidate since she could take some of the ticket-splitters in Daytona Beach-based Volusia County, where Kosmas is from.

“I know that there are many people who think it might be premature for [Diebel] to go on the congressional scene just yet,” Dowless said. “If she can raise the money, I think she might have a [good chance]. I just don’t know that she has enough name ID.”

National party operatives are counting on a strong second-quarter fundraising report to show exactly why they were high on Diebel. A source close to her campaign said she should approach $100,000 raised in the three weeks leading up to the second-quarter deadline.

She has a compelling personal story as someone whose husband was killed while trying to help a couple in an overturned pickup truck, and the GOP also likes the contrast the 42-year-old Diebel provides to the 65-year-old Kosmas.

But with the ever-increasing number of candidates in the race, just about anything could happen, and the party is taking a cautious approach on the primary.

Dr. Ken Miller is also running, and businessman Sean Campbell, who narrowly lost a special election for a state House seat last year, is looking at the race.

“I believe it’s only natural that — given the incumbent’s record — that there should be plenty of Republicans ready to take her place,” Diebel said.

A crowded primary isn’t quite ideal, but Republicans are taking a wait-and-see approach to the field in the hope that a strong contender will emerge.

“It’s not like every single star is aligning, but given the fundamentals and the fact that we’re guaranteed to have someone credible, we’ll have a good shot,” said a Washington-based Republican operative.

Adams said each of the candidates brings something different, and she sounds ready to play up her past in law enforcement.

“You’ve got three women who have different aspects that they bring to the table,” she said, emphasizing that others are still looking at the race.

While the candidates and the primary shake out, the party will be doing its best to engage Kosmas and make her an issue in the campaign. Unlike fellow freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Kosmas is more apt to legislate quietly and avoid controversy.

That’s a solid strategy in a big media market like Orlando’s, where, as Grayson is finding out, bad publicity can be damning.

The GOP has begun trying to draw Kosmas out on her recent statement to Florida Today that, “Within five years, we will no longer have a deficit.” Kosmas was asked how she squared her support for pay-as-you go legislation with the expense of the stimulus package, which she supported.

“Suzanne Kosmas’s first six months in Congress have produced little more than soaring deficits, at-risk Space Coast jobs and a strong field of GOP candidates ready and willing to hold her accountable,” said Andy Seré, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Kosmas spokesman Marc Goldberg declined to comment on the GOP primary but said Monday that his boss is working hard on fiscal issues.

Kosmas has been among the top fundraisers in the freshman class, and will report around $350,000 raised in the second quarter.

“Congresswoman Kosmas is committed to fiscal responsibility and to reining in spending, which is why she is an original co-sponsor of the new pay-go legislation,” Goldberg said.